副总统万斯。（路透）
One of the things the data analysts on our side obsessed over was “composition”—whether the electorate looked close enough to 2024 for Republicans to win. And despite polls that showed a Democrat blowout, the data kept on telling us the same story: in some states turnout was merely OK, in other states it was downright amazing, and in no state was it catastrophic. There was a genuine sense of optimism on our team: our people were showing up. So, I asked the smartest data guy I know, does that mean we’re going to shock the world? “No,” he told me. “We might do better than the polls suggest. But the data is telling us that a lot of Trump/Vance 2024 voters are pissed and planning to vote for the other guys. Our voters are turning out, but they may not vote for us.” Well, that looks prophetic now. Our voters did show up. In Florida, for example, the electorate was 9 points more Republican than Democrat, just a couple points worse than 2024. Undoubtedly there were places we could have done better on turnout. But the main problem is not turnout. The main problem is that many people who voted for Trump/Vance in 2024 voted for Democrats in 2026. There will be a lot of infighting and arguing over what happened and why that is. One of the pollsters I really respect told me that our economic messaging wasn’t sharp enough down the stretch. I’m sure that’s true. But the real reason we lost is obvious to almost everyone. Another pollster—one of the smartest people I know in politics, told me yesterday we’d lose the generic ballot by 13 points. I felt negative going into Tuesday, but even I was shocked by this. In his polling, he saw that a lot of Trump 2024 voters were angry and planning to vote for Democrats. He asked those voters who had abandoned us what would cause them to come back on our team. The top four answers, accounting for nearly all of the responses were: 1) End the war 2) Focus on cost of living/inflation 3) Put America First 4) Change our relationship to Israel Our voters showed up. And the above four reasons are why many of them voted for Democrats. This is according to a pollster who nailed the results. While many spent Monday attacking Rachel Campos Duffy for calling for a diplomatic resolution to the conflict, it turns out her political advice was sound. (She’s also a great person.) In the next few months, there’s going to be a lot of gaslighting. Expect to hear any number of establishment politicians say the solution to our woes is amnesty. I’m open to the idea that we should change enforcement—by focusing more on businesses that hire illegal labor, for instance. But anyone pushing amnesty is lying to you. The reason we lost is the war. The president himself said so last night. If you’d like to argue it was worth it, that losing the Senate for the next 6 years was worth it, then do so. Argue it was a worthwhile cost to pay. Agree or disagree, that’s at least honest. But everyone knows why we lost. And any honest conversation about where we go from here must start there. I remain hopeful about our country. To the people who are pissed off and want to say, “I told you so”: you’re right, you did tell us so. Take that energy into electing Republicans who share your worldview. To the people who are just pissed at the results, you should be. Let’s take that anger and get back to the work of saving our country.
— JD Vance (@JDVance) November 4, 2026
万斯副总统于四日在社交平台发表长文，直指共和党期中选举之所以遭遇惨败，根本原因在于伊朗战争。他表示，所有支持此战争者都需承认一个现实：曾经掌控的国会多数党地位因此拱手相让。与此迥异，川普总统在投票当晚接受纽约时报采访时声称对伊朗用兵并无遗憾，并称此举对美利坚合众国及全世界的重要性不容否认。
万斯在贴文中坦言：”我们选战失利的真正原因，就在于这场战争。”
他进一步指出，所有富有实质意义的对话都应该以此为基石展开。
他表示：”若想辩称此举值得一试，若想主张失去未来六年参议院控制权的代价本属应该承担，那就堂堂正正去争辩吧。”
万斯强调，倘若要为伊朗战争的后果进行辩护，无论立场如何，最低限度应该做到坦诚相见：”但每个人都洞悉我们失利的来龙去脉”。
以下为万斯文章内容的核心观点：
我们这一方的数据分析团队最关注的一项指标是”选民结构”——投票者的成分是否足以接近2024年的水平，进而使得共和党获胜成为可能。虽然民调普遍预言民主党会赢得压倒性胜利，但我们的数据却反复呈现出相同的结论：部分州的投票参与度处于正常水平，部分州则热情高涨，而没有任何州出现投票率崩溃的景象。这给了我方团队真实的乐观心态：我们的支持者正踊跃参加投票。
基于这一点，我向我认识的最杰出数据分析人士提出疑问：这是否预示着我们要出人意料地大胜？”并非如此，”他的回复是：”相比民调预测，我们的表现或许会更进一步。然而，数据却在向我们示意一个事实：许多2024年投票给川普和万斯的人感到愤怒之极，已经作出转投对党的决定。我们的选民虽有出来投票，但最后可能不会投给我们。”
如今审视这段话，几乎堪称精确的预言。我们的支持者果然投出了票。以佛州为例，共和党选民的占比比民主党选民多出九个百分点，仅比2024年的状况略有下滑。显然地，我们在部分地区的选民动员工作还有进一步的空间。然而，根本性问题并未涉及投票率的高低。根本问题实际上在于，2024年将选票投给川普与万斯的许多人，到了2026年却转而支持了民主党阵营。
关于发生了什么以及背后的因由，未来势必会引发党内的大量纷争和质证。一位受我深度尊敬的民调人士向我透露，我们在选战冲刺期间的经济主张宣传尚显锐度不足。此言确系属实。
但我们败选的本质原因，几乎全部人士都心领神会、心知肚明。
另一名民调专家——他也是政界我所认识的智者之一——于昨日告诉我，通用党派支持率上我们会落后十三个百分点。虽然周二投票前我就感觉态势不利，但连我自己也被这个幅度吓了一跳。根据他的民调发现，许多2024年川普支持者情绪低落，已决定改投民主党人。他向这批背弃我们的选民发起提问，什么因素才足以让他们回心转意。排名前四的答案涵盖了将近全部的反馈：
1）终止战争
2）聚焦生活开支与物价问题
3）落实「美国优先」政策
4）调整对以色列的外交姿态
我们的选民果然参与了投票。上述四大原因，恰好是许多人掉转枪口、投向民主党的主要驱动力。这个结论出自一位成功预判选举结果的民调家。当不少人在周一围攻瑞秋·坎波斯-达菲只因她主张以外交途径化解冲突时，事实证明她的政治洞察力是准确的。（她同样品德高尚。）
在今后数月，”情感勒索与舆论操纵”的现象恐将大行其道。做好心理准备吧，届时会听到许多政界建制派人士声称，治愈我们顽疾的灵丹妙药就是”移民大赦”。我对调整执法策略持开放态度——比如可以把重点落在严查雇佣非法劳工的企业身上。然而，凡是推销”大赦”的人全都在忽悠你。
我们落败的缘由就在于战争。连总统昨晚也这么表态了。
倘若诸位想要申辞这一切都有其必要性，想要声称失去未来六年的参议院控制权系属值得付出的代价，那就坚定地提出论证吧。去阐述这是一种应该接受的成本。要么赞同，要么不赞同，但这样至少才是光明磊落的立场。
然而所有人都洞悉我们何以落败。任何关于我们前路如何、方向何向的真诚对话，都必须从此地始。
我对我们的祖国仍然充满期许。对那些满腔怒火、想说”我早已提醒过你们”的诸位：你们言之有理，你们确实曾经劝告过我们。请怀揣着这份力量，去选举那些与你们的价值观相契合的共和党人。对于那些单因选举失利而感到沮丧的诸位，你们的愤怒实乃应然。让我们将此愤懑转化为力量，重新投入拯救国家的神圣事业。
